![]() ![]() There is increasing discussion of “multinationality”, of joint training and learning how to operate together. Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau (centre) with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (right) and Slovak Republic Foreign Minister Ivan Korčok during a NATO meeting in April ( NATO/Flickr) The emerging one is to strengthen national armed forces to be prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory. For example, the old paradigm used to be that NATO would mobilise in event of a crisis. This unequivocal framing of the conflict has had a lasting impact on threat perceptions and NATO unity. There is interest in the potential for Poland to prosecute war crimes through its national courts or establish an international special tribunal given that Russia is not a party to the International Criminal Court. It sees Russia as a rogue state that flouts international law and advocates the need to impose strategic costs on Russia, including treating Russia as an international pariah. Poland can take some credit for this view due to its consistent clarity of perspective. This framing was not preordained in another sense it is the continuation of an eight-year war. Poland sees it as its responsibility to motivate others to mobilise in support of Ukraine, building unity for a Russian strategic defeat.įrom NATO experts, I heard again and again that 24 February was a watershed moment that fundamentally upended the European security order by bringing a major land war to Europe. Poland has also been a powerful advocate within NATO and the European Union. If so, it could be a long war and one that Poland wants Ukraine to win. It may have been an optimistic view, but multiple experts talked of Ukraine potentially pushing Russia back. The hot war is not over and is seen as moving into a middle phase where Russia recalibrates its strategy (and redefines victory). Russia has not yet been able to defeat the Ukrainian army, occupy its terrain and break Ukraine’s will. This is vital because the view from Warsaw is that the result of the war is still very much to be decided. Poland continues to apply pressure on the United States to expand its support. Poland sees the Biden administration as having adapted over time, for example in its definition of offensive and defensive weapons. But the belief that Ukraine would lose affected the sort of support that the Biden administration considered providing – such as a reluctance to provide high-end weapons in case they fell into Russian hands. The US saw the invasion coming and sounded the alarm. Polish and American experts alike admit that the United States needed some convincing. Yet there is still a strong political consensus to continue to provide support.īeyond this humanitarian response, Poland has been playing a key role in advocating for Ukraine – perhaps most importantly to the United States. ![]() This support isn’t costless, with Poland’s economy being hit by the war. ![]() There is a visceral sense among Poles that “last time this was us”. As well as welcoming Polish-speaking Ukrainians, who are figuratively (and sometimes literally) family, there is huge sympathy for all Ukrainians as victims of Russian aggression. It’s important to see this in human terms: for example, the person I sat next to on my flight was hosting five Ukrainian refugees while his sister-in-law was hosting eight. Many would be aware that Poland been an important first responder, estimated to have taken in close to 3.5 million refugees and acting as a hub for humanitarian assistance. Beyond the immediate emergency response following Russia’s invasion, Poland is acting as Ukraine’s advocate in building support both across NATO and EU member states and, crucially, through its relationship with the United States. It was clear that Poland sees itself as Ukraine’s champion. This week I was in Warsaw listening to experts on regional strategy and security. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |